Both citywide quarterly value and volume for all sales transactions (i.e. ready, off plan, cash
and mortgage) have all recently hit highs since 2013. Of course, there was a noticeable
slump in 2020 due to the effects of COVID, but since then, sales have seen a remarkable
Value and Volume Analysis
Cash has consistently outstripped mortgages as the predominant payment method for real
estate sales over the last 12 years. While some might interpret this to mean that the real
estate market is largely insensitive to mortgage rates, the fall in ready sales and rise in off
plan coinciding with rising interest rates seems to contradict this conclusion.
Community Transaction Splits
In both older and newer communities, there was a noticeable drop off in both sales volume
and value due to COVID. However, many communities have since rallied to achieve highs
unseen in the last five years or more. The newer communities fared slightly better through
COVID, likely because a significant portion of their sales were off plan and intended for the
future. However, we are now starting to see a downturn in sales, likely due to a combination of
rising interest rates and the effects of mean reversion (see Just Being Mean – a previous
GCP-Reidin report that can be found on either company’s LinkedIn or the GCP website).