– Citywide Ready vs Off Plan
The past four years have seen a reversal of trends in the residential sales market. While ready sales used to comprise a greater proportion of the market than their off plan counterparts, this is no longer the case. Furthermore, the gap between off plan and ready sales has widened. While in 2022, off plan sales were 23.2% higher on an average monthly basis, that difference had climbed to 29.1% in 2023.
– Payment Plans
Payment plans have also seen a shift, moving increasingly towards payment plans with no post-handover payments. Interestingly, the data patterns in the rise of off plan activity and the increase in payment plans with no post-handover payments are highly correlated with a coefficient of 0.75. This suggests that the change in payment plan trends are the driving force behind the rise in off plan sales.
– Community Analysis
Jumeirah Village Circle and Sobha Hartland are two communities where off plan activity has been greatly concentrated across the last four years. Notably, these two communities also have higher correlation coefficients with the easing of payment plans (0.87 and 0.82 respectively), further lending credence to the idea that the shift in payment plans has been the causal factor behind increasing off plan sales, as the phenomenon can be observed on both a macro (citywide) and micro (individual community) level.